Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - San Francisco Business Times:

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The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the next few but state and local government layoffs are the Business Forecasting Center at the said in its lates t California and Metro Forecastreleased Wednesday. The forecast said California’e unemployment will peak at 12.3 percent earlh next year, and will remainj in double-digits until the end of 2011. The center producea quarterly economic forecasts of theUnited States, California and nine metri areas, from Sacramento to Fresno and the San Franciscol Bay Area. In the Sacramentko area, unemployment will rise from 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 percenft next year, before dipping to 10.2 percent in the report said.
Unemployment is expected to reacn 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecas to rebound in the third quarter of next when job growth will improveto 0.8 percent. A “strongv rebound is expected to take place in professionaland business, and educationakl and health services sectors,” the report said of “Job growth is expected to have its firs positive full year at 2.0 percent in Sacramento’s real personal income, meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percen t next year.
San Jose and San Franciscp will be the first metrol areas in Northern California to return totheitr pre-recession employment levels, in the second and third quarterw of 2012, respectively, the study Sacramento and Merced will be among the last nortnh state metro areas to regaijn peak employment, in fourth-quarter 2013. Vallej is last, with a return expected in the seconx quarterof 2014. The Central Valley will be hard hit by the combinatiobn of recent state tax increases and massiver expectedbudget cuts, the Business Forecasting Center “The state budget crisis is a dangerous aftershocl to a region still reeling from the foreclosure Jeff Michael, director of the Business Forecastinvg Center, said in a news release.
The Centrap Valley is an economic disaster but most ofits “economic shocks are cyclical in nature rather than permanent changes such as closed military bases,” the news release • Construction continues to lead job losses in percentagse terms, declining another 15 percent to 110,0000 in 2009. • Manufacturing will lead the decline in 2009, losing 135,000 jobs this • Retail sales will not return to thei r 2007 level until 2011. New car and truck sales will fallbelow 1.06 million in after exceeding 2 million for most of the decade. Sales will gradually increase as theeconomu recovers, reaching 1.46 million next year, and 1.73 million in 2011.
Housing starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,000p units, more than 80 percent below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housing starts will be back to 100,000 units in 2011, and exceed 150,000 by 2013. • Health care is the only sectodr that will not shrinkthis year. The gain of 13,000 healtyh care jobs, or 0.9 is the slowest growth this decade. • Personao income declines 0.8 percent in 2009. • Nonfarm payrolls will declinewby 1,020,000 jobs statewide during the two-yeat recession. • The California economhy will finally hit bottom in the fourth quarter of this and will begina slow, multi-yearr recovery.
It will be 2013 beforew many key economic indicatorw such as unemployment return tohealthyh levels. • The state’x recession should end in the last quarter of this but the job market will remain weak througj most ofnext year.